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Building Off-Grid Cabins for Entrepreneurs

W15: Gambler's Fallacy Explained

Off-Grid Cabins for Entrepreneurs

Hey there, Manav here! ✨ Every week, I'll be sharing my thoughts on productivity, life lessons, and helpful tips.

This weekly newsletter is my way of reflecting on life and keeping track of the fascinating things I discover or come to understand.

Gambler’s Fallacy Explained

Here’s why you always lose money at the casino:

Let’s say you go to Vegas to gamble. You decide to play roulette.

You’re betting on black or red.

After seeing a series of reds, you’d be likely to bet on black, assuming that the wheel will turn up a black to even out the score.

But that doesn’t happen you end up losing all your money on red.

This is because, in reality, each spin of the wheel is an independent event with the same set of probabilities, unaffected by previous results. This bias is called the gambler's fallacy which means that people usually believe that past events can influence future outcomes.

This happens because of our intuitive misunderstanding of randomness and probability.

It’s not always our fault we humans are always looking for patterns in the real world, justifying every decision with some dumb logic.

A roulette wheel, for instance, does not have a memory; each spin is independent and holds a 48.65% chance of landing on red or black.

This also happens in other areas of our life.

For instance, an investor may sell off a nice compounding stock believing that its "luck" will soon run out {happened to me before}.

As you can imagine this kind of decision-making can have some serious financial implications.

Well, next time you go to a casino:

  • Develop a clear strategy before entering the casino, such as setting a budget, determining your betting limits, and knowing when to stop.

  • And avoid chasing losses: Don’t fall into the trap of trying to recoup losses by increasing your bets.

Here’s why your work feels dreadful 🧵

When I imagine my dream lifestyle, it’s definitely not a life of me on Zoom calls all day.

I imagined it would be more thrilling than this.

But here we are and we need to figure out ways to make our work and our routine more playful somehow and not fall for quiet quitting.

Here's your 5-step guide to making work feel less like 'work':

  • Stay Curious: Ever noticed when you're deeply interested in something, time just flies? Find tasks or projects that spark genuine curiosity in you. When you’re passionate about what you do, it feels less like work and more like play.

  • Seek Challenges: Remember how you'd stop playing a video game once all levels were cleared? Just like that, work becomes dull if it’s too easy. Strive for tasks that are challenging enough to keep things fresh and engaging.

  • Pursue Mastery: When we master a skill or task, it gives us a sense of accomplishment. The thrill is in the journey - pushing your limits, improving, and achieving success because of your hard work and skills, not just luck.

  • Take the Wheel: Think of your role at work as a video game player. You want to be Player One, leading the game, not just following. Be proactive. Initiate projects. Drive things forward. This ensures you’re not just a small part but steering the ship.

  • Mix Up Your Surroundings: Imagine working in a new setting every so often. The change in environment can be refreshing. Work from a park, collaborate with different teams or even go solo for some tasks. New surroundings can provide fresh perspectives and energy.

Business idea of the week:

Problem: Entrepreneurs/Creatives burning out with excessive screen time.

Solution: Off-Grid cabins outside major metropolitan cities for remote workers.

This can help founders recharge and connect with other like-minded people.

Off

Here are a few companies doing this:

Useful Links:

There are two types of people: those who try to win and those who try to win arguments. They are never the same.

Nassim Taleb

MEMES 🤣

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